It’s not always easy when you’re deep in the thick of it, but a step back can reveal the remarkable diversity on the Australian gold scene in 2026.
Until a few years ago, there was clear demarcation. There were hundreds of explorers chasing the multimillion-ounce dream, there were junior miners battling to make a profit – but almost never a return to shareholders – on 100,000 ozpa assets and there were the established miners who held all the quality operations and most of the prospective development projects. Every company knew its place, every investor knew how to assess them.
Gold’s unprecedented run has warped everything, offering opportunities to companies which wouldn’t have got near them a decade ago.
Counterintuitively, the majors appear to be walking a tightrope as the wave of new investors who arrived at the start of the gold bull market and enjoyed the constant price increases are demanding they continue.
While Evolution Mining Ltd has seemingly pulled itself out of a minor crisis – thanks in part to its copper credits, Northern Star Resources Ltd appears on the verge of a full-blown emergency with activist shareholder Elliott Investment Management pushing for a dramatic shift in strategy which could see the company disappear altogether.
The rumour mill has been in overdrive since Elliott took its criticisms of Northern Star management public in early June. Gold Fields Ltd and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd – African heavyweights with sizeable West Australian portfolios – have already been mentioned as possible suitors but have been mute in public, while Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd is stalking but is yet to break cover.
It has been common knowledge in WA gold circles that Agnico – the world’s second largest gold producer – is waiting for an opportunity to enter the WA gold space. Vice president Australia operations Ion Hann admits as much on page 38 of this issue of GMJ.
“We’re on record as saying we want to be larger in Australia,” he told me. “If we can add value that is great, but most WA gold companies are bloody good miners and are showing it currently.”
Northern Star is the one company not “showing it” at the moment and appears vulnerable, should Agnico pull the trigger.
Elsewhere, the multibillion-dollar mid-tier producers are increasingly confident, talking up their growth ambitions.
There is risk here as well though because it is a phenomenon the Australian gold industry hasn’t experienced before – multiple mid-tier companies worth billions and with balance sheets capable of funding almost any option in front of them.
When Northern Star and Evolution did it last decade, they had a largely clear run at assets majors no longer wanted. Today, the likes of Regis Resources Ltd, Genesis Minerals Ltd, Westgold Resources Ltd and Ramelius Resources Ltd are competing with each other on almost every opportunity.
The variety on offer continues in the junior mining space where a new generation of companies have torn up the traditional drill-resource-feasibility script and launched immediately into production based around mining JVs and ore purchase agreements or toll-treatment.
The question for this group is, what next? The skills required to bring a small resource into production and turn a profit are very different from those needed to define a company-making project. If these smaller companies don’t get the right people in the right roles, they could squander the profits generated by their opportunism.
Even the exploration space is beginning to find its supporters after a decade on the outer. Companies are getting rewarded for being brave, a change in mood from just 18 months ago when an explorer with the temerity to take the time to define a new project was punished for not capturing the gold price immediately.
The diversity extends beyond the WA borders. We are seeing gold production and exploration in South Australia after a long hiatus, Victorian explorers are still hoping to emulate the Fosterville success story, while in Queensland gold explorers are competing with their copper cousins for drill rigs and geologists.
Overseas, a new wave of ASX-listed explorers are turning up in Africa, as evidenced by the focus of our cover story, Turaco Gold Ltd. Meanwhile in North America, Aussie juniors are enjoying the balancing act of finding a gold deposit they know the market will understand, with discovering the antimony and tungsten resource the Federal Government will throw money at.