Australia’s Paydirt, Issue 328
As we head into a new financial year, it feels like the entire Australian mining sector is waiting for the next major trend to emerge
In the gold sector, the rampant price has everyone is still anticipating another big M&A deal following Newmont Corp’s capture of Newcrest Mining last year. The issue is that, in Australian terms, the big names all appear preoccupied with their existing operations, being either content to pursue organic growth or even preferring some portfolio pruning over expansion.
Northern Star Resources Ltd and Evolution Mining Ltd don’t appear to have logical targets and after the weather disruptions of the early part of the year are happily accumulating ounces and cash.
Admittedly, the next rung down is full of companies jostling for position. Red 5 Ltd is about to become a plus-400,000 ozpa producer following its tie-up with Silver Lake Resources Ltd, while Westgold Resources Ltd and Ramelius Resources Ltd are arguing over Beta Hunt owner Karora Resources Inc. However, few of these are going to prove seismic to the overall shape of the sector.
The one outlier to this is De Grey Mining Ltd, which at a market cap of $2.45 billion, is actually the fourth largest gold stock on the ASX. That is a remarkable feat given it is still several years away from production but also testament to the quality of its Hemi gold discovery which now boasts a 12.7 moz resource.
Hemi is a genuine Tier-1 asset which would fit in any portfolio, so is surely on the radar of every global gold player, but De Grey has been so adept at staying one step ahead of the market, there has never been any real consideration of a takeover attempt. Gold Road Resources Ltd got the closest when it acquired nearly 20% in the developer. However, given its travails at its Gruyere operation and the fact De Grey’s market value now outstrips its own, Gold Road’s opportunity may have passed.
De Grey’s value would be an issue for any prospective buyer. Having raised $600 million in May to take its cash position beyond $900 million, it doesn’t need any financial help building the project. Any suitor would have to pay a premium – a high-risk strategy given it is still a single-asset, pre-development company.
Away from gold, the rest of the market is seemingly feeling its way through the dark, hoping to find the door for the next cycle.
Lithium miners and developers are catching their breath, investors are checking nickel miners to see if they even have a breath and copper players are holding theirs in the hope that the current price window is open long enough for them to fulfill their long-term strategies.
Meanwhile, at the junior end of the market, companies find themselves trapped in stasis, thanks to the mix of a market still uncomfortable with exploration risk, escalating operating costs and a turgid approvals system in every Australian state and territory.
Everyone is waiting for the dam to burst, but whether the burst brings new life or biblical floods remains to be seen.
Regardless of the trends, delegates at Diggers & Dealers will provide an upbeat mood when they gather at the Goldfields Arts Centre next month.
The conference scene has changed dramatically over the 33 years Diggers has been going.
In the early days, it was a rare opportunity to find a company story and hear from the managing director direct. In 2024, we are inundated with presentations and speeches on company websites and the ASX, while managing directors appear on podcasts, webinars and YouTube videos almost constantly.
If anything, those juniors looking for inspiration and established producers looking for opportunity will be bolstered by attending Diggers and the other big conferences coming up.
Despite these technological changes, there remains something irreplaceable about forums such as Diggers. No amount of streaming can match the human element of a conference. You don’t bump into somebody on a webinar. You can’t watch a managing director being interviewed on YouTube, and then join them in the pub for a few beers afterwards.
It may have changed immeasurably down the years, but Diggers & Dealers will remain a crucial part of the Australian mining landscape for many years to come.