It is a question which, in the mining sector, is always under interpretation.
The Hedley Widdup Lion Selection clock is a great visualisation of the mining sector’s boom-bust cycle – the problem is there is no telling just how quickly the hands are moving. In the modern age, it feels like they are whizzing around the clockface at an unerring pace.
In so many walks of life – from voter sentiment in politics, to supporters’ responses in sport, to investors’ emotion in markets – political parties, football clubs and commodity markets are constantly in either in boom or crisis and the time in between is ever narrowing.
Perhaps only the gold market is defying this trend but even then, as I wrote in GMJ recently, there are already signs that some of the smart money is planning its exit.
Sneaking up behind gold has been a revival in critical minerals.
I’m not only talking here about the niche, exotic metals such as tungsten and antimony but also the larger-market critical minerals, such as lithium and rare earths.
The established lithium players have enjoyed a strong six months with PLS Ltd up 99.6%, Liontown Resources Ltd up 124% and Mineral Resources Ltd up 162% (albeit with a more diversified portfolio).
Rare earths players have followed – thanks largely to the latest US-China trade tête-à-tête – with the only established producer Lynas Rare Earths Ltd up 159% and Iluka Resource Ltd (again, diversified) up 154%, while the likes of Arafura Rare Earths Ltd (115%), Critica Ltd (242%), St George Mining Ltd (580%) and Lindian Resources Ltd (290%) are nearing all-time highs.
It is a far cry from the start of 2025 when it felt like every analyst and commentator was calling the critical minerals boom a busted flush and the EV revolution a mirage. EV sales are up year-on-year in every major market – even in Australia they are up 25% according to the latest data from the EV Council – and battery storage systems continue to grow as a demand segment. While there is not as much direct policy action around climate change as there was two years ago, the trend has quietly continued to gather pace in almost every major economy.
The commodity boom-bust cycle, which 30 years ago would’ve developed and matured over a five-year period, is revolving inside two years now.
What to make of it all? Well, for exploration companies the accelerated cycle only makes defining a strategy and sticking to it so much harder. Juniors have always been caught between being agile and willing to switch assets and sticking to the projects and commodities they know.
Even the most stoic of shareholders would’ve applauded any explorer who decided to park lithium or rare earths exploration in favour of gold fever but given how quickly the pendulum is swinging, perhaps it would’ve been better to stay the course.
For the management of explorers, deciding whether to stick or twist on individual projects has become as important to market performance as any technical work they do.
The irony is, many of Australia’s major discoveries have come when the commodity found was not in vogue. By their very definition, world-class deposits will defy markets, no matter the circumstances.
Nickel is one commodity which hasn’t caught fire this year with prices resolutely refusing to break out of multiyear troughs. However, at Paydirt’s Australian Nickel Conference Lunch last month (see pages 40-45), Western Mines Group Ltd managing director Caedmon Marriott gave an impassioned defence of those companies, like his own, which chose to forgo fashions in favour of putting in the groundwork to make a discovery of “the devils’ copper”.
“You have to want to make discovery,” Marriott said. “These companies who one week they’re trying to find rare earths and the next week they’ve got on board an antimony project and the next: ‘Oh, let’s all go to Mountain Pass and we’re all going to make a rap video. Are those guys actually trying to make a discovery? I don’t believe they are. We had to stick with this for four years, keep going with your process and you’ve got to believe it is there and put in the hard work.”
There are plenty of executives who would share Marriott’s frustration and even more who will applaud him and his company should their diligence lead to the kind of discovery their persistence has earned.