Things have rarely looked brighter for Australian gold companies, but the sector for the sector in 2026 will be maintaining the momentum.
Here’s a look at what matters most to the different sections of the industry over the next 12 months:
The juniors
Last year represented the best year for the junior gold sector in more than a decade as the long-promised trickle down of investor interest from the producers turned into a torrent from mid-year.
Hopefully this trend will continue in 2026 but there are still concerns out there. The trend among juniors in 2025 was to focus on brownfields assets and not only brownfields exploration projects.
Instead of coming up with a new geological interpretation of old assets, the best performers on the ASX were those juniors which picked up old producing mines, rebadged them, redrew the pit designs and came up with a low-cost plan to get into production.
There were no new deposits being found on old ground, and certainly very little genuine greenfields exploration occurring.
This is in no way a criticism of the companies which have headed down the early production route, most have had tremendous success in creating value for shareholders. However, it feels unsustainable, particularly if the gold price starts to drift, costs go up and investors begin looking elsewhere.
What we need to see is some genuine exploration success. The recent NewGenGold conference showcased the exceptional work going on in the exploration space. The current market support should be enough for the more ambitious and creative juniors to take shareholders on a new voyage of discovery.
The miners
After having it all their own way over the last few years, the established producers may find it more difficult to keep investors’ attention this year.
As generalist investors are pulled into the space in greater numbers, the expectations of ever-increasing returns will be stronger.
Generalist investors unfamiliar with the economic fundamentals of gold mining are demanding. Miners will be under pressure, not just to replace depleted ounces but grow their production base and widen margins, even if the gold price stalls or retreats.
As such, companies will be forced into rash M&A decisions or organic development decisions, buying over the odds for assets or building projects which won’t survive a spot price downturn.
We have been here before during previous booms and the results were uniformly disastrous for individual companies and the reputation of the sector as investors fled when they realised miners cannot keep inflating profits in the way Apple, Meta or Amazon can.
The brave companies will be those who forego some of the fleeting interest in favour of making themselves more resilient and more upwardly mobile by recycling the portfolio, dropping their Tier-2 and Tier-3 assets in favour of focusing on higher-quality ounces.
The money people
The most maligned group in the gold sector is always the funders – whether the “fickle” retail investors, “demanding” institutional shareholders or “suffocating” debt providers – they are always being blamed, for either lacking long-term fortitude and technical understanding or pushing unwanted M&A on reluctant management teams.
Last year, however, everyone was one, big happy family as share prices continued to climb, profits expanded and companies returned cash to shareholders.
This year could be very different. As mentioned above, investors will expect to see wider margins, even if the gold price falls, and there will be pressure on miners to show they have a long-term plan for sustainable growth.
This will require a vibrant junior sector and well-stocked development pipeline of new assets. There may be a few bolt-on acquisitions but it seems inevitable the brave few who are taking on ambitious exploration will be the junior companies most likely to benefit.
They just need to make a discovery first.