I would say the 2025 junior gold sector can be divided into roughly four categories: companies reworking old projects, those bringing smaller projects to bear quickly, groups looking to develop plus-100,000 ozpa standalone projects and explorers with longer-term Greenfields opportunities.
At the height of the bull market, companies across this entire spectrum will get carried along – a rising tide raises all boats – but we are not there yet as there is still stratification as to what punters are prepared to invest in.
As the cover feature and several other stories in this edition prove, the first two categories are receiving plenty of backing.
A host of companies have returned to neglected projects. Some of them will only do a bit of sprucing up with a few new drill holes and an updated pit shell to reflect the new price realities to suddenly make these forgotten assets look attractive. Others will hope to emulate Spartan Resources Ltd which returned to old ground with a new exploration approach and came up with a discovery which was eventually crystallised into a $2.4 billion takeover by Ramelius Resources Ltd.
For those companies with smaller deposits, the need to keep drilling and expanding the resource is no longer an imperative. The price has made even 20,000oz deposits potentially mineable – if other factors are in place – and the proliferation of mills around the Eastern Goldfields and Murchison mean there is any number of willing plant operators ready to either toll-treat or purchase ore, especially if it is high-grade materials.
Investors are more discerning about the two other categories, however.
In the “genuine development” space, there are fewer plus-100,000 ozpa options out there. Counterintuitively, this may be a function of the gold price. In previous booms, these were the key category, companies with projects not quite big enough for the established producers, but advanced enough for investors to get behind.
This time around, few companies have reached this stage, either the cashed-up miners are swooping on their discoveries early, even if it means picking the odd dud, or most are choosing the second route of quick resource definition and toll-treatment, even if there is potential to grow the resource.
This has left those juniors with ambitions to build and operate their own projects feeling either neglected or vulnerable, or both.
Companies in the final group have it even tougher. Here, the current price definitely works against their investment proposition. Equity markets are looking to leverage to the gold price now, not in the 5-10 years it will take to find a deposit, grow and develop it and then bring it into profitable production.
Additionally, why would investors take a risk on Greenfields discovery when the ongoing rewards from mature producers are still so strong?
For those with plus-1 Moz resources and standalone ambitions and for companies with intriguing Greenfields opportunities, it must be incredibly frustrating to see peers garner market support for small, discrete projects which will only last a few years but this is the state of the current market.
Investors are interested in junior gold equities for the first time in a decade, you just have to be the right kind of junior gold company to get the most from this interest.